The stronger you feel, the less you see of your opponent

1. under the gun raise to $2
2. middle position fold
3. cutoff call $2
4. button call $2
5. I raise to $20 · ×10
6. big blind fold
7. under the gun fold
8. cutoff raise to $61.33 · ×3.1
9. button fold
10. I call $41.33

The hand of the day: jacks against queens, −$61.33. J♣J♠ in the small blind. Under the gun (UTG) raises to $2, the cutoff (CO) and the button call, the pot is $7.50, and I reraise to $20: with three opponents in, I'd rather make jacks expensive now than see a flop with them. The big blind and UTG fold, and the cutoff moves all-in: he has $61.33. I have to put in $41.33 to w, so the call pays if I win at least 32% of the time. What would he do that with? He only called the first raise; it was mine that sent his whole stack in. If he only does this with queens, kings, or aces, I estimate jacks at 18% against that, and the call is worth −$19 compared with folding. If ace-king is in there too, 36% and +$3. The wider his range, the better for jacks: with tens and ace-queen it comes to 47% and +$16. I call. He shows Q♣Q♥: 18%, the worst case. We run it twice: the board is dealt out two separate times, half the pot on each. First board A♣ A♦ 4♥ 6♦ T♣: two pair each, his higher. Second board J♥ 9♣ 3♠ Q♦ 4♦: I have three jacks, he has three queens. Both runs are his. Whether the call was right depends on one thing only: what he moves all-in with, and I don't know it. The 32% price sits between my 18% and 47% estimates, so there is no verdict. My reraise, though, is beyond doubt: by theory, jacks in the small blind against a raise and two callers reraise every time. The jacks were strong right up to the moment he answered with his whole stack, and weak after it, with the same cards in my hand.

1. I raise to $2
2. middle position fold
3. cutoff raise to $7.50 · ×3.8
4. button fold
5. small blind fold
6. big blind fold
7. I call $5.50

Another hand with jacks produced the best decision of the day, and it's a fold. J♣J♦ under the gun. I raise to $2, the cutoff reraises to $7.50, everyone else folds, and I call: against one opponent jacks are strong, but raising them again means playing for my whole stack with a hand that queens, kings, and aces all beat.

1. I check
2. cutoff bet $12.38 · 75% pot
3. I call $12.38

A king above my jacks. I check, he bets $12.38 (75% of the pot), I call: not everything he reraised with has a king in it.

1. I check
2. cutoff check

The turn is the A♥: a second card above my jacks. Check, check.

1. I bet $17.62 · 43% pot
2. cutoff raise to $88.29 · ×5
3. I fold

The river is the J♥: a third jack, and at the same time the fourth card to a straight: the board now reads T, K, A, J, and any queen in his hand fills the gap. I bet $17.62 (43% of the pot): three jacks are the best hand I've had all evening, and ace-king, two pair, and three tens will all call. He moves all-in for $88.29. I have $65.73 left; to put it in for a $207.96 pot, I need to win 32% of the time. By my model of his range, the hands he'd reraise to $7.50 with and still be here with, that's 84 combinations, specific two-card holdings: three jacks beat 56 and lose to 28, every straight with a queen, three aces, three kings. But does he move all-in with all 84? I ran this river through a solver with his range: in theory, he moves all-in over my bet only with straights, and jacks always fold here. A second model, where he would have bet his strong hands on the turn, gives the same answer. I fold. Minus $37.50 instead of minus $103.23, my whole stack.

1. I raise to $2
2. middle position fold
3. cutoff fold
4. button fold
5. small blind raise to $5.75 · ×2.9
6. big blind fold
7. I call $3.75

One more pair of jacks, J♠J♣, again under the gun and again facing a raise: the small blind reraises to $5.75, I call.

1. small blind bet $6.25 · 50% pot
2. I call $6.25

An ace above my jacks. He bets $6.25 (50% of the pot), I call.

1. small blind check
2. I check

The turn is the 9♦: check, check.

1. small blind bet $18.75 · 75% pot
2. I fold

The river is the 4♦: he bets $18.75 (75% of the pot). A call pays if I win at least 30% of the time. Against my estimate of his range, my chances are 25% to 31%, right around the price. By the solver, in two models of his range, jacks fold here to any bet size. I fold. Minus $12.

1. under the gun raise to $2.20
2. I call $2.20
3. cutoff call $2.20
4. button raise to $15 · ×6.8
5. small blind fold
6. big blind fold
7. under the gun fold
8. I raise to $122.30 · ×8.2
9. cutoff fold
10. button call $68.34

Where does +$47 by EV come from when the result is −$5? From two preflop all-ins. In jacks against queens I lose $39 by EV instead of $61. And the nines: 9♥9♦ in middle position (MP), I call the opening raise, the button reraises to $15, I move all-in over it, and he calls with A♦6♦. Nines win 68% of the time against that hand. We run it twice and take one board each: the pot is split, +$0.70 in cash and +$30.74 by EV. By theory, nines don't go all-in over a reraise like that: if the opponent calls the all-in only with queens or better and ace-king, my expectation when called is −$23, and for the move to pay he has to fold more than half the time. But I read it differently. The button was a player with a short stack, $83, and I read him as an amateur. The archive supports that read: players with less than a full stack call a preflop all-in with a hand weaker than tens or ace-queen 38 times out of 100; players with a full stack, 26. His call with A♦6♦ was exactly one of those. Against a calling range with suited aces, I estimate nines at about 44%, and the move pays if he folds at least a third of the time, and he wasn't reraising only with strong hands. Against the man who was actually sitting there, the all-in was the right decision. Against a player with a full stack and a tight calling range, the same nines are a fold.