The arithmetic of a planned loss

1. under the gun raise to $2
2. middle position fold
3. cutoff fold
4. button fold
5. small blind fold
6. I call $1

The biggest of the six wins. K♦Q♥ in the big blind, the first player to act (under the gun, UTG) raises to $2, I call for a dollar.

1. I check
2. under the gun bet $1.35 · 30% pot
3. I call $1.35

Gives me a full house, kings full of queens; on this board nothing beats my hand, and only another king-queen can tie. I check, he bets $1.35 (30% of the pot), I call.

1. I check
2. under the gun bet $5.40 · 75% pot
3. I raise to $23.40 · ×4.3
4. under the gun fold

I check, he bets $5.40 (75% of the pot), I raise to $23.40, he folds. In theory – by the computed optimal strategy – a hand like this calls and waits for the next street nine times out of ten and raises the tenth: I took the rare line, and he was gone. I collected $17.10, +$8.35 net: the biggest win from that seat in the half hour.

1. under the gun fold
2. middle position raise to $2
3. cutoff call $2
4. button fold
5. small blind fold
6. I call $1

The most expensive of the sixteen losses: A♠J♦. A player in middle position (MP) raises to $2, the next one, on the cutoff (CO), calls, I put in the extra dollar.

1. I check
2. middle position check
3. cutoff check

Everyone checks.

1. I check
2. middle position check
3. cutoff bet $3.15 · 48% pot
4. I call $3.15
5. middle position fold

I check, the cutoff bets $3.15 (48% of the pot), I call: a ten gives me a straight, an ace gives me two pair, and the call already pays for itself if I win a quarter of the time.

1. I check
2. cutoff bet $7.23 · 56% pot
3. I fold

I check, he bets $7.23 (56% of the pot), I have nothing but the pair of kings on the board, I fold. −$5.15: that is what the most expensive defense of that seat cost in the half hour. The other fifteen cost two or three dollars each.

1. under the gun fold
2. I raise to $2
3. cutoff fold
4. button fold
5. small blind fold
6. big blind call $1

The most expensive hand of the day did not come from the blind. T♣T♦ in middle position (MP), I raise to $2, the big blind calls.

1. big blind check
2. I bet $1.49 · 33% pot
3. big blind call $1.49

He checks, I bet $1.49 (33% of the pot), he calls.

1. big blind check
2. I bet $12 · 160% pot
3. big blind raise to $36.61 · ×3.1
4. I call $24.61

The card that gives me three tens and at the same time completes a straight for anyone holding ace-queen or queen-nine. He checks, I bet $12 (160% of the pot); in theory that bet is one of three standard lines here. He raises to $36.61. This is the moment where the hand has already told me everything: in theory, of a hundred hands he reaches the turn with, no more than six raise a bet like this, and between half and two-thirds of those six are straights, the rest bluffs with no pair. Folding three tens for $24.61 is still out of the question, of course: the call pays for itself at 30%, and beyond the chance that he is bluffing, ten of the forty-six unseen cards give me a full house.

1. big blind bet $40 · 50% pot
2. I call $40

Changes nothing. He bets $40 (50% of the pot), and the call pays for itself at 33%. By my estimate straights make up between half and three-quarters of his bets here, which means the pot is mine 27–47% of the time: the price falls inside that range, and in theory a hand like this rarely calls here – but it does call. I call. He has A♦Q♣, a ten-to-ace straight. −$80.10, two and a half times the day's result. There is no mistake on any street; there is only the price of finding out what he had after his raise: $64.61, four-fifths of all the money in the hand.

1. under the gun fold
2. I raise to $2
3. cutoff fold
4. button call $2
5. small blind call $1.50
6. big blind call $1

And the day's entire upside came from a single hand. 6♠8♠ in middle position, I raise to $2 (in theory you don't open this hand from here; I open it about half the time) and get three callers.

1. small blind check
2. big blind check
3. I bet $4 · 50% pot
4. button call $4
5. small blind fold
6. big blind raise to $24 · ×6
7. I raise to $98 · ×4.1
8. button fold
9. big blind call $57.65

Gives me two pair, eights and sixes. I bet $4 (50% of the pot), the button calls, the big blind raises to $24, I move all-in for $98, he calls off his last $57.65 with 7♦6♥, a lower two pair. Run twice, both run-outs mine, 84.8% against his hand, +$87.15. Against everything that raises on a board like this, my hand wins about half the time by my estimate, so the credit for this one is his: he paid $57.65 with fifteen chances in a hundred. Before that hand I was down $114.56.