Daily 300 – 3×100 Daily 300

Glossary

Showdown

The moment the remaining players show their cards and the pot goes to the best hand. Most hands never get there: usually everyone but one folds earlier.

Showdown is the only moment in poker when the truth is visible. All bets are in, the remaining players turn over their cards, the pot goes to the best hand. Everything before this was a bet on whose hand was stronger; here it stops being a bet.

And hands rarely get there. In a 300-hand session I show my cards at showdown about ten times. Every other pot goes to whoever made the last bet nobody answered, and what he held is never learned by anyone, including himself an hour later.

An example from session 11

In one session I made 76 decisions with money at stake, and only 14 of them reached showdown, 18% of decisions and 53% of the money invested. About the other 62 I will never know whether I was right. Feedback in poker is not just rare, it is biased: the truth arrives for the most expensive hands, and the cheap ones go unanswered.

The same in business

About most of your decisions you will never learn whether they were right. The candidate you did not hire, the supplier you did not pick, the market you did not enter send no reports. Showdowns happen only with what you invested in heavily, and you have to learn from that biased sample knowing it is biased.

The whole hand is in session 11: “You will never learn whether you were right about most of your decisions”.

The other terms are in the glossary.