River

The river is the fifth card, and after it nothing will change. Odds are no longer counted: everyone has a finished hand, and there is one question, who is stronger. Every river bet is made for one of two reasons: either you are stronger and want to be paid, or weaker and want a fold. There is no third reason.

That is why the river is the street of the most expensive calls. The pot is at its largest, the bet is the last, and paying «to see» costs the same as paying with a reason. Most of the money I lose in a session is lost here, in river calls with a hand that is good only against a bluff.

An example from session 15

T♣T♦, three tens on a board of 4♦ K♣ J♣ T♥ 6♦, where any ace-queen is a straight. On the river the opponent bets $40, half the pot; the call breaks even at 33%. By my estimate a straight makes up half to three quarters of his bets here, so the pot is mine 27–47% of the time: the price sits inside the range. I call. He has A♦Q♣. Minus $80, no mistake on any street, only the price of answering the question «what does he have»: $64.61 after his raise, four fifths of all the money in the hand.

The same in business

The river tests one thing: whether you can leave alternative branches unchecked. The deal is closed, the partner has left, the tender is lost, and there is an urge to pay extra to learn what would have happened. What would have happened is worth nothing, because there is nowhere left to use it. On the river you pay only for what can still be won.

The whole hand is in session 15: “The arithmetic of a planned loss”.

The other terms are in the glossary.